Tuesday, December 15, 2009

NRC to PHEVs: You're Too Expensive

Yesterday, the National Research Council (NRC) released a report on the costs of plug-in hybrids that seems to confirm basic logic: Consumers won't see a return on their initial investment for decades. It could be 2030 before it's actually a good buy to plunk down cash for a hybrid.

According to the NRC report, "costs to manufacture plug-in hybrid electric vehicles in 2010 are estimated to be as much as $18,000 more than for an equivalent conventional vehicle." Since my last car cost less than $18,000 altogether, that seems like a big ol' mountain for the hybrid industry to climb before the average consumer like me thinks: Oh boy, I get to save money AND save the environment. I'll definitely buy one.

This reminds me of the time I looked into putting solar cells on my house. When I figured in the cost of the panels, the conversion of the electric wiring, the specialty meter, etc., the figure topped out at over $20,000. Since my average power bill in the summer is $60 and in the winter is $30, it would be nearly 30 years until those solar cells started paying for themselves. And they only had a shelf life of a decade. After that, I would be tush-over-teakettle, building up debt to replace panels every 10 years---like those people who trade in cars every six months and then wonder why they can no longer afford to eat. It just wasn't a feasible, practical option.

Now, some of the same adjustments to home electric wiring required for me to prop up those solar panels would also be required for PHEVs, adding as much as a grand on top of the 18K for the vehicle.

Apparently, it takes a lot of money to save the world. And, while I wish to save the world, don't get me wrong, I'm more concerned about not ending up tush-over-teakettle. I don't like debt. I certainly don't want to be swimming in it, personally, in order to transfer part of my carbon footprint from my little Kia Sportage to my local electric company.

I remember an old friend who was all gung-ho for PHEVs. He was ready to pay heavy for saving the world. He was pumped and prepped to trade in his Ford and get on the green bandwagon, though he still lived in a huge, three-car-garage/five-bedroom house 65+ miles from his workplace. As he talked to me about the positives of PHEVs, all I could think about were the costs he would be ringing up when he could buy a smaller house closer to his work and make a much larger contribution to bettering the environment. But, buying the car was actually easier, for him anyway.

For most of us, though, buying a PHEV is difficult. I love the environment, and I hope we can all do our part to make it greener. But, I prefer the more practical---and infinitely easier for me---concepts of smaller footprints through smaller living, cold-water washing, using less paper products, living 3 miles from work (although I do still drive, I admit that).

While PHEVs may offer hope that we can slice our larger, national population's carbon footprint, it seems the first hurdle is still the most prominent: making it affordable for the individual average consumer who cannot see an extra 20K fly out of their pocketbook for the environment. I would love to see this technology become affordable and accessible. But, until it does, I don't see very many of us clamoring to go green through our garages.

For more information on PHEVs, click through to our PHEV topic page here.

2 comments:

  1. The problem is that the economics aren't cut and dried, they never are. I've been following plug-ins for a while now, and over the life of a vehicle, assuming 150,000 miles, the cost of electricity to fuel that vehicle could be anywhere from $500 to $5,000.
    Replacing my 350Z getting 21MPG (if I keep my foot off the accelerator), the gasoline fuel purchases will cost anywhere from $14,500 to $35,600 depending on the retail price of gasoline. So if I can give up my fun sports car, I could reduce my fuel costs over 150,000 miles by $9,500 minimum to $35,100 maximum. The economics depend on the present and future costs the two fuel sources in the region of the country I live in. I feel more positive about the future cost of electricity where I live compared to the future cost of gasoline.

    Aside from the pure economics, the efficiencies of properly controlled adjustable speed drives and motors when compared to combustion engines are clearly demonstrated at any modern manufacturing facility today.

    Efficiency ultimately drives the economics in the long run, so I'd bet on the most efficient platform coming out ahead, and in the meantime it will depend on present and future fuel costs in your area and the type of vehicle being displaced.

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  2. PHEV of course will cost more because of two power plants that need to be integrated. Full battery electric along with a policy of "live where you work and work where you live". The earth's atmosphere is about 2 to 5 miles deep on a ball that is 24,000 miles in diameter. The ongoing pollution is a bit like leaving the car engine running with the garage door closed. We are now just releasing the carbon that had been sequestered by plant life over the past billion or so years. Eric

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