As an online editor, I handle stories every day of new wind farms going up or some local dignitaries pulling the switch for a new solar energy project. You read stories that use phrases like "dash for gas" or "war on coal," but absorbing stuff like this day by day has a way of numbing you to the big picture.
The big picture is that things are changing in a big way. I realized recently that the way I think about the generation mix in the U.S. is seriously out of date. I did a mental check. "OK, so natural gas is about 25 percent, nuclear is a steady 20 percent, coal is like half at least, right?"
Wrong.
New data from FERC shows the picture is changing drastically. Especially natural gas, coal and renewables. Wind and solar — which used to be relegated to a tiny sliver of the pie, or else an asterisk or an "other" — are contributing more than 5 percent of the total generation mix of the country.
Even more surprising perhaps is coal, which has fallen to less than 30 percent of the pie. What's replacing it, largely, is natural gas, which is now 42.37 percent of the mix.
Certainly I knew that coal-fired power plants were retiring. I hadn't missed those announcements. Indeed, sometimes it felt like the only coal stories I ever filed were those concerning coal power plants shutting down or switching to natural gas.
Nuclear, known for its reliability, is sticking at a steady 20 percent. However, given the potential of small modular reactors and the NRC granting new licenses, even just a few new projects going online could change that figure in the future.
Even unexpected generation technologies, like geothermal energy, seems to be showing some growth with more than 147 MW of new capacity being brought online last year — an increase of 5 percent from 2011.
I first started to notice this when FERC released a recap of the power generation that came online in 2012. Half of that new generation had been renewable energy. Some analysts I spoke to at the time considered this a fluke. They said there was no way that this could sustain itself. But FERC keeps reporting the data, and if anything the numbers look like this trend is speeding up. Coal is out, natural gas and renewables are in.
Things are changing in statistically significant ways. When you watch it every day, like energy experts tend to do, sometimes you can lose track of just how fast it's moving.
Thursday, February 21, 2013
Friday, February 8, 2013
Outages remind public of the grid's needs
By Teresa Hansen,
Editor-in-Chief, Electric Light & Power and POWERGRID International magazines
The past few months have been unkind to the electric utility industry. Disruptive weather events, especially Hurricane Sandy, and a blackout during the Super Bowl, have caused politicians, regulators, media and customers to questions U.S. utilities' ability to provide reliable service.
It's unfortunate that news about the 34-minute outage that occurred shortly after the second half began could become bigger than news about the Ravens' victory over the 49ers. One of the many headlines I saw after the story broke read, "Blackouts are on the rise across the United States."
The article didn't include statistics or sources to back up this headline, but at this point the facts are less important than the perception: That electric utilities are failing at their job of providing uninterrupted, reliable electricity. When more than 108 million people are watching a live event on television and the lights go out, headlines and stories such as this one should be expected.
Editor's Note: Since the time of this writing, Entergy New Orleans has traced the cause of the Super Bowl outages to an electrical relay device.
The outage's cause hasn't been determined. Entergy New Orleans, which provides power to the Superdome, is working with its management to determine what happened. Nondisclosure of their findings hasn't, however, kept the media from reporting on likely causes. A report from CBS Interactive Inc. (CBS online news source) said Philip Allison, a communications specialist at Entergy, said power had been flowing into the stadium before the lights failed and all the distribution and transmission feeds into the Superdome were operating "as expected." According to the CBS report, Allison said the outage appeared to have been caused by the failure of equipment maintained by stadium staff.
An Associated Press report said Superdome officials "warned just months before the Super Bowl that the venue's electrical system could suffer a power outage and rushed to replace some of the equipment ahead of the big game." It doesn't say who these officials warned, but who cares? Once again, perception trumps fact.
Even if Entergy and Superdome management discover the cause was simple and could be easily fixed to avoid similar events at the venue, most people won't care; the public relations damage has been done. The outage is at best a black eye for Entergy New Orleans, as well as reinforcement to a conclusion made by many Americans: U.S. electric utilities are unreliable.
Utilities in the Northeast have been criticized heavily since Hurricane Sandy caused major damage to grid infrastructure in New Jersey and New York. The hurricane knocked out power to almost all of Long Island Power Authority's 1.1. million customers and some were without power for more than three weeks. Mainstream media, government officials and customers relentlessly criticized the utilities, especially LIPA, as well as their management. The criticism led to the resignation of Michael Hervey, LIPA's chief operating officer, the formation of a commission to investigate LIPA's slow response and aged infrastructure, as well as a recommendation by New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo to replace the non-profit municipal utility with a privately owned power company. Never mind that the storm's winds and surge were much worse than experts predicted or imagined, the consensus is that electric utilities should have been better prepared and customers deserve better.
Maybe one good thing that has come from these recent disruptive events is that people from outside the industry are beginning to recognize that the current electricity deliver infrastructure needs attention and investment. Admitting that a problem exists is the first step to solving it. The next step, which is resolution, will be much more difficult.
Upgrading the current infrastructure won't be cheap or easy. It will require cooperation between utilities, utility shareholders, regulators, politicians, technology providers and customers. All of these parties want electricity at a reasonable cost, however their definition of reliable and reasonable can be vastly different. At least the first steps of a long infrastructure rehabilitation and modernization process have been taken.
Editor-in-Chief, Electric Light & Power and POWERGRID International magazines
The past few months have been unkind to the electric utility industry. Disruptive weather events, especially Hurricane Sandy, and a blackout during the Super Bowl, have caused politicians, regulators, media and customers to questions U.S. utilities' ability to provide reliable service.
It's unfortunate that news about the 34-minute outage that occurred shortly after the second half began could become bigger than news about the Ravens' victory over the 49ers. One of the many headlines I saw after the story broke read, "Blackouts are on the rise across the United States."
The article didn't include statistics or sources to back up this headline, but at this point the facts are less important than the perception: That electric utilities are failing at their job of providing uninterrupted, reliable electricity. When more than 108 million people are watching a live event on television and the lights go out, headlines and stories such as this one should be expected.
Editor's Note: Since the time of this writing, Entergy New Orleans has traced the cause of the Super Bowl outages to an electrical relay device.
The outage's cause hasn't been determined. Entergy New Orleans, which provides power to the Superdome, is working with its management to determine what happened. Nondisclosure of their findings hasn't, however, kept the media from reporting on likely causes. A report from CBS Interactive Inc. (CBS online news source) said Philip Allison, a communications specialist at Entergy, said power had been flowing into the stadium before the lights failed and all the distribution and transmission feeds into the Superdome were operating "as expected." According to the CBS report, Allison said the outage appeared to have been caused by the failure of equipment maintained by stadium staff.
An Associated Press report said Superdome officials "warned just months before the Super Bowl that the venue's electrical system could suffer a power outage and rushed to replace some of the equipment ahead of the big game." It doesn't say who these officials warned, but who cares? Once again, perception trumps fact.
Even if Entergy and Superdome management discover the cause was simple and could be easily fixed to avoid similar events at the venue, most people won't care; the public relations damage has been done. The outage is at best a black eye for Entergy New Orleans, as well as reinforcement to a conclusion made by many Americans: U.S. electric utilities are unreliable.
Utilities in the Northeast have been criticized heavily since Hurricane Sandy caused major damage to grid infrastructure in New Jersey and New York. The hurricane knocked out power to almost all of Long Island Power Authority's 1.1. million customers and some were without power for more than three weeks. Mainstream media, government officials and customers relentlessly criticized the utilities, especially LIPA, as well as their management. The criticism led to the resignation of Michael Hervey, LIPA's chief operating officer, the formation of a commission to investigate LIPA's slow response and aged infrastructure, as well as a recommendation by New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo to replace the non-profit municipal utility with a privately owned power company. Never mind that the storm's winds and surge were much worse than experts predicted or imagined, the consensus is that electric utilities should have been better prepared and customers deserve better.
Maybe one good thing that has come from these recent disruptive events is that people from outside the industry are beginning to recognize that the current electricity deliver infrastructure needs attention and investment. Admitting that a problem exists is the first step to solving it. The next step, which is resolution, will be much more difficult.
Upgrading the current infrastructure won't be cheap or easy. It will require cooperation between utilities, utility shareholders, regulators, politicians, technology providers and customers. All of these parties want electricity at a reasonable cost, however their definition of reliable and reasonable can be vastly different. At least the first steps of a long infrastructure rehabilitation and modernization process have been taken.
Tuesday, February 5, 2013
DR the talk of DTECH
Every year, the editors of POWERGRID International and Electric Light & Power magazines, our conference chairs, our logistics people and our conference staff work hard to put on an informative show at DistribuTECH. Every detail is meticulously planned out. One thing we can't control, though is what people want to talk about when they finally do come to the show.
I did notice a few topics, though, that people wanted to talk about more than others. Here's my top five:
1. Demand response
The single most often-mentioned technology at DistribuTECH 2013 was demand response. Far and away, I heard more about good old automated DR than I did about any other smart grid technology. Silver Spring Networks introduced a demand-side management system meant to boost DR programs. Honeywell and Opower rolled out an energy management platform to help utilities in their efforts to manage peak loads. Also, Alstom Grid and Capgemini paired up on a cloud-based demand response management system. That doesn't include just the general "buzz" at the show about DR as an idea. Just about everyone I spoke with had something to say about the application of automated DR.
2. Analytics
"Big Data" is becoming quite a buzzword. At the show, exhibitors would often tell you (with a note of either apprehensiveness or excitement in their voices) about the brain-twisting volume of data that their systems are expected to take in, digest, slice, dice and finally serve up as something a grid operator can easily understand and use. In the press room, I was asked by another reporter who the "top" provider of data analytics for utilities is. While I wanted to be more helpful, I couldn't answer the question because this technology is still too new. There isn't really a Nike or an Apple for data big data yet and there are so many different approaches you could take, there might not ever be.
3. Last gasp capabilities
This is a phrase I learned shortly before the conference, and I heard some incredibly detailed conversations about it — including some high-level engineer talk that went a little beyond me, honestly. But it's easy to understand the advantage offered by smart meters with capacitors that can send out an information-packed "last gasp" back to grid operators in the microseconds before power is cut off. This information, which can include but is not limited to the customer's account, when and where the outage happened, etc., could be crucial to the development of a truly "self healing" smart grid.
4. A "bite sized" approach to smart grid
This is not to say that smart grid projects are becoming less ambitious. It's more like utilities and technology providers are approaching them differently — if not backwards, then at least sideways. Instead of trying to build out a smart grid meter by meter and creating a full-on AMI system from whole cloth, some companies are looking for a way to deliver the benefits of a distribution automation service to a utility in short order. Hence the phrase "bite sized" smart grid. What utilities want today is something they can quickly realize benefits from without a large capital investment, then turn around to their customers and say, "Look, we did X, Y and Z for you." Saving money is nice, but sometimes it's even better to be able to say, "We kept the lights on when other utilities didn't, and it's because we invested in this technology."
5. Utility customer apps for smart phones
In handling the dozens and dozens of news releases sent from the exhibit hall floor, I saw several companies releasing brand new apps designed to help customers manage their energy use at home from anywhere they carry their smart phone. Most major utilities have already at least taken a stab at releasing a customer app that does things like let the customer pay a bill or view energy usage. The more savvy tech providers are building apps with functionalities such as remote smart thermostat operation, social media-based outage reporting ... or better yet, combining all of these things into one program. And of course bonus points for those providers who are able to roll out their apps to the most gadgets at once — not just iPhones, but also iPads, Androids and others.
I did notice a few topics, though, that people wanted to talk about more than others. Here's my top five:
1. Demand response
The single most often-mentioned technology at DistribuTECH 2013 was demand response. Far and away, I heard more about good old automated DR than I did about any other smart grid technology. Silver Spring Networks introduced a demand-side management system meant to boost DR programs. Honeywell and Opower rolled out an energy management platform to help utilities in their efforts to manage peak loads. Also, Alstom Grid and Capgemini paired up on a cloud-based demand response management system. That doesn't include just the general "buzz" at the show about DR as an idea. Just about everyone I spoke with had something to say about the application of automated DR.
2. Analytics
"Big Data" is becoming quite a buzzword. At the show, exhibitors would often tell you (with a note of either apprehensiveness or excitement in their voices) about the brain-twisting volume of data that their systems are expected to take in, digest, slice, dice and finally serve up as something a grid operator can easily understand and use. In the press room, I was asked by another reporter who the "top" provider of data analytics for utilities is. While I wanted to be more helpful, I couldn't answer the question because this technology is still too new. There isn't really a Nike or an Apple for data big data yet and there are so many different approaches you could take, there might not ever be.
3. Last gasp capabilities
This is a phrase I learned shortly before the conference, and I heard some incredibly detailed conversations about it — including some high-level engineer talk that went a little beyond me, honestly. But it's easy to understand the advantage offered by smart meters with capacitors that can send out an information-packed "last gasp" back to grid operators in the microseconds before power is cut off. This information, which can include but is not limited to the customer's account, when and where the outage happened, etc., could be crucial to the development of a truly "self healing" smart grid.
4. A "bite sized" approach to smart grid
This is not to say that smart grid projects are becoming less ambitious. It's more like utilities and technology providers are approaching them differently — if not backwards, then at least sideways. Instead of trying to build out a smart grid meter by meter and creating a full-on AMI system from whole cloth, some companies are looking for a way to deliver the benefits of a distribution automation service to a utility in short order. Hence the phrase "bite sized" smart grid. What utilities want today is something they can quickly realize benefits from without a large capital investment, then turn around to their customers and say, "Look, we did X, Y and Z for you." Saving money is nice, but sometimes it's even better to be able to say, "We kept the lights on when other utilities didn't, and it's because we invested in this technology."
5. Utility customer apps for smart phones
In handling the dozens and dozens of news releases sent from the exhibit hall floor, I saw several companies releasing brand new apps designed to help customers manage their energy use at home from anywhere they carry their smart phone. Most major utilities have already at least taken a stab at releasing a customer app that does things like let the customer pay a bill or view energy usage. The more savvy tech providers are building apps with functionalities such as remote smart thermostat operation, social media-based outage reporting ... or better yet, combining all of these things into one program. And of course bonus points for those providers who are able to roll out their apps to the most gadgets at once — not just iPhones, but also iPads, Androids and others.
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