This morning while watching news footage of Hurricane Sandy's aftermath, for some reason I thought of "Jurassic Park."
On CNN, I could see just about every prediction meteorologists made the day before come true, one by one. It made me think of the chaos theory-obsessed mathematician Ian Malcolm who predicted Jurassic Park's dinosaurs would be impossible to contain.
Later on, with a full-grown tyrannosaurus broken loose and stomping around, Malcolm says regretfully, "Boy, do I hate being right all the time."
The day the storm made landfall, I called into a webinar hosted by Earth Networks, a weather forecasting firm that makes the WeatherBug iPhone app that I use myself just about every morning.
The company's meteorologist, Mark Hoekzema, predicted storm surges around Long Island, flooding in New York, heavy rains in Maryland and Virginia, wind gusts throughout New England and blizzards in Appalachia.
If you want to see how accurate those predictions turned out to be, I recommend reading the story I wrote yesterday and comparing them with today's headlines.
All we have to go on in times of severe weather are the predictions of scientists and the mass media's transcription of those predictions. Sometimes predictions fall short of coming true — call it chaos theory. Sometimes this leads to people getting a little blase about how severe the storm could be — even if they live in or near its predicted path.
Sometimes the media over-hypes what the scientists are trying to say. Many people felt the warnings about Hurricane Irene in 2011 were exaggerated, even though the storm was the fifth costliest storm in U.S. history.
One group who can never assume that the worst won't happen, however, is electric utilities. It's a scary thing to lose power in the middle of a disaster — especially with frightening news stories coming in and people tweeting some pretty awful pictures of storm damage. And if utilities aren't completely on point with their recovery efforts — or even if the public merely doesn't think the lights are coming back on fast enough — they have to face an angry public.
This particular storm was everything they said it would be. Some 7.5 million people were left without electricity, multiple billions will have to be spent on repairs, thousands are likely homeless, hundreds of thousands are cut off from transportation and almost 40 Americans are now dead. And that's just what we know about now. There will certainly be stories in the coming days and weeks of other kinds of damage. Whether you're in a utility, working for the media or just some a bystander hunkering down and hoping for the best, pays to be careful.
NOTE: The Red Cross is seeking donations, preferably money, blood or volunteer time. Click here for more information.
Tuesday, October 30, 2012
Friday, October 26, 2012
'Frankenstorm' threatens East Coast
When did storms start getting such creative names? The East Coast's blizzard of 2010 was dubbed "Snowmageddon." Runners-up for that storm's name were "Snowzilla" or even "SnOMG."
This most recent storm at least tells you what makes it so dangerous. According to the experts, the "Frankenstorm" could be a hybrid weather monster resulting from the collision of Hurricane Sandy sweeping in from east to west, and a wintry storm coming from west to east. Worse, a cold front is coming down from Canada.
At the time that I write this, they're not exactly certain where these storms could collide, if indeed they do, but forecasters are predicting the worst storm in 100 years for the American Northeast.
At the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, forecasters are saying there may be no precedent for the kind of storm activity their models are suggesting.
NASA even has a video uplink showing what the storm looks like from space. Pretty scary.
Sandy has weakened somewhat since moving away from the Bahamas, and is now a Category 1 hurricane. It is predicted to run parallel to the coastline, near the outer banks of North Carolina. It could run aground anywhere between the Maryland-Delaware-Virginia peninsula to Southern New England. As with any hurricane track, however, this prediction could change.
I'm sure there will be plenty of people snarking at the media for overhyping Frankenstorm if it turns out to be milder than predicted, but with damage predictions ranging from at least $1 billion to as much as $5 billion, utilities will be glad not to have to clean up such a mess.
Like utilities do, however, companies large and small are preparing. The usual press releases about staying away from downed power lines are going out, severe weather centers are activating, call centers are bringing in their staffs and mutual assistance crews are organizing.
Pepco has held back some 400 contractors in their service area to address storm damage. Exelon's Baltimore Gas & Electric has warned its customers of power outages and flooding. Duke Energy is monitoring the storm and activating the initial phases of its storm plan. FirstEnergy utilities (which include Penelec, Potomac Edison, Jersey Central Power & Light, West Penn Power and Potomac Edison are mobilizing internal crews and support personnel to assist with the restoration effort.
This most recent storm at least tells you what makes it so dangerous. According to the experts, the "Frankenstorm" could be a hybrid weather monster resulting from the collision of Hurricane Sandy sweeping in from east to west, and a wintry storm coming from west to east. Worse, a cold front is coming down from Canada.
At the time that I write this, they're not exactly certain where these storms could collide, if indeed they do, but forecasters are predicting the worst storm in 100 years for the American Northeast.
At the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, forecasters are saying there may be no precedent for the kind of storm activity their models are suggesting.
NASA even has a video uplink showing what the storm looks like from space. Pretty scary.
Sandy has weakened somewhat since moving away from the Bahamas, and is now a Category 1 hurricane. It is predicted to run parallel to the coastline, near the outer banks of North Carolina. It could run aground anywhere between the Maryland-Delaware-Virginia peninsula to Southern New England. As with any hurricane track, however, this prediction could change.
I'm sure there will be plenty of people snarking at the media for overhyping Frankenstorm if it turns out to be milder than predicted, but with damage predictions ranging from at least $1 billion to as much as $5 billion, utilities will be glad not to have to clean up such a mess.
Like utilities do, however, companies large and small are preparing. The usual press releases about staying away from downed power lines are going out, severe weather centers are activating, call centers are bringing in their staffs and mutual assistance crews are organizing.
Pepco has held back some 400 contractors in their service area to address storm damage. Exelon's Baltimore Gas & Electric has warned its customers of power outages and flooding. Duke Energy is monitoring the storm and activating the initial phases of its storm plan. FirstEnergy utilities (which include Penelec, Potomac Edison, Jersey Central Power & Light, West Penn Power and Potomac Edison are mobilizing internal crews and support personnel to assist with the restoration effort.
Thursday, October 18, 2012
Obama, Romney talk about energy, with energy
President Barack Obama and former Gov. Mitt Romney faced off at New York
State's Hofstra University October 17 with polls tightening and each
man eager to make their appeals to the country's remaining undecided
voters still available in the 2012 election's last few weeks.
While the first presidential debate saw little mention of energy as an issue — with Romney briefly mentioning government subsidies to green energy firms, like the bankrupt Solyndra — this debate had the candidates talking energy both frequently and early on in the proceedings.
Last night, a member of the town hall audience broached the topic of energy costs with a question about gas prices and plans to lower them. He said Obama's secretary of Energy, Stephen Chu, has said it is not the policy of the DOE to help lower gas prices, and asked Obama directly if he agreed. Obama responded to this question by talking about the production of oil, coal and natural gas.
The president said that while production of fossil fuels is up, the country must also invest in wind power, solar power and biofuels, as well as make vehicles that burn less gas.
On natural gas, Obama said, "We've got potentially 600,000 jobs and 100 years worth of energy right beneath our feet with natural gas. And we can do it in an environmentally friendly way, but we have got to continue to figure out how we can get efficient energy because that is how we can reduce demand and that is what's going to keep gas prices lower."
Both candidates tried to claim the mantle of an "all of the above" energy policy, which has become a bit of a catchphrase for both parties of late. Obama said Romney's plan is not all-of-the-above because he would let "oil companies write the energy policies."
"So he's got the oil and gas part, but not the clean energy part," Obama said. "China and Germany are making these clean energy investments, and I'm not going to cede those jobs of the future to those countries. I expect those new energy sources to be built right here in the United States."
"I want to make sure we use our oil, our coal, our gas, our nuclear, our renewables. I believe very much in our renewable capabilities. Ethanol, wind, solar will all be an important part of our energy mix," Romney said. "But what we don't need is to have the president keeping us from taking advantage of oil, coal and gas."
Building a coal-fired power plant in specific, Romney said, is nearly impossible to do under current regulations — hinting that this is by the design of Obama's EPA.
Obama countered this charge by saying that as governor of Massachusetts, Romney "took great pride" in shutting down a coal plant.
"You stood in front of a coal plant and pointed at it and said, 'This plant kills,'" Obama said.
According to the Tampa Bay Times' PolitiFact, the plant Obama referred to was the Salem Harbor Power Station, which was then owned by Pacific Gas & Electric. The four-unit coal-burning plant had been ranked as one of the "Filthy Five" plants by an environmental group and as the newly elected governor, Romney decided not to support a plan to grant the plant an extension to comply with emissions rules. At a videotaped press conference, Romney said, "I will not create jobs or hold jobs that kill people, and that plant — that plant kills people."
Obama went on to say that his administration invested in "clean coal" technology.
CNN reporter Candy Crowley, who served as moderator, asked whether the price of gas be meaningfully addressed by an American president at all, or are per-gallon prices hovering around $4 the "new normal," Crowley wanted to know.
The subject went back to oil production, where Romney said production on public land had dropped by 14 percent this year, which sparked a testy exchange and back-and-forth denials.
Apparently both men decided that the sure-fire winner was talking about gas prices — with Obama defending his record and talking about production, and Romney in turn saying the strategy hasn't worked because of the price you pay at the pump.
While there was occasional name-checking of wind or solar, this debate's energy talk was almost limited to fossil fuels, though. The energy we feed into the grid by burning fossil fuels wasn't talked about much by either candidate, and nobody said a word about energy infrastructure, grid cybersecurity or the smart grid.
It wasn't too much to hope for either. I have heard this president say the words "smart grid" before, even though many voters might not yet know what it means. Romney, I'm sure, is aware of these technologies too, having helped manage the finances of high-tech companies in his private asset management days.
I wish "energy" in the context of a political debate could occasionally mean something more than "gas prices" though.
It was a town hall style debate, and time was limited however. According to at least one report, Crowley had a question on climate change in her pocket that she never got around to asking. That could have potentially yielded some thought-provoking statements. Maybe if there had been a bit less crosstalk on the floor, she could have gotten to it.
There is still one more debate, but it will primarily concern foreign policy. This debate, then, was probably the last time energy policy could conceivably have been brought up in any great detail — at least with both the president and the governor in the same room.
If you want to know where these candidates stand on energy issues, it looks like you're going to have to do a little digging.
For more on Romney and Obama's respective energy plans, see Jennifer Van Burkleo's story from the September-October issue of Electric Light & Power magazine.
And please, don't forget to vote — Nov. 6, or earlier if your state allows it.
While the first presidential debate saw little mention of energy as an issue — with Romney briefly mentioning government subsidies to green energy firms, like the bankrupt Solyndra — this debate had the candidates talking energy both frequently and early on in the proceedings.
Last night, a member of the town hall audience broached the topic of energy costs with a question about gas prices and plans to lower them. He said Obama's secretary of Energy, Stephen Chu, has said it is not the policy of the DOE to help lower gas prices, and asked Obama directly if he agreed. Obama responded to this question by talking about the production of oil, coal and natural gas.
The president said that while production of fossil fuels is up, the country must also invest in wind power, solar power and biofuels, as well as make vehicles that burn less gas.
On natural gas, Obama said, "We've got potentially 600,000 jobs and 100 years worth of energy right beneath our feet with natural gas. And we can do it in an environmentally friendly way, but we have got to continue to figure out how we can get efficient energy because that is how we can reduce demand and that is what's going to keep gas prices lower."
Both candidates tried to claim the mantle of an "all of the above" energy policy, which has become a bit of a catchphrase for both parties of late. Obama said Romney's plan is not all-of-the-above because he would let "oil companies write the energy policies."
"So he's got the oil and gas part, but not the clean energy part," Obama said. "China and Germany are making these clean energy investments, and I'm not going to cede those jobs of the future to those countries. I expect those new energy sources to be built right here in the United States."
"I want to make sure we use our oil, our coal, our gas, our nuclear, our renewables. I believe very much in our renewable capabilities. Ethanol, wind, solar will all be an important part of our energy mix," Romney said. "But what we don't need is to have the president keeping us from taking advantage of oil, coal and gas."
Building a coal-fired power plant in specific, Romney said, is nearly impossible to do under current regulations — hinting that this is by the design of Obama's EPA.
Obama countered this charge by saying that as governor of Massachusetts, Romney "took great pride" in shutting down a coal plant.
"You stood in front of a coal plant and pointed at it and said, 'This plant kills,'" Obama said.
According to the Tampa Bay Times' PolitiFact, the plant Obama referred to was the Salem Harbor Power Station, which was then owned by Pacific Gas & Electric. The four-unit coal-burning plant had been ranked as one of the "Filthy Five" plants by an environmental group and as the newly elected governor, Romney decided not to support a plan to grant the plant an extension to comply with emissions rules. At a videotaped press conference, Romney said, "I will not create jobs or hold jobs that kill people, and that plant — that plant kills people."
Obama went on to say that his administration invested in "clean coal" technology.
CNN reporter Candy Crowley, who served as moderator, asked whether the price of gas be meaningfully addressed by an American president at all, or are per-gallon prices hovering around $4 the "new normal," Crowley wanted to know.
The subject went back to oil production, where Romney said production on public land had dropped by 14 percent this year, which sparked a testy exchange and back-and-forth denials.
Apparently both men decided that the sure-fire winner was talking about gas prices — with Obama defending his record and talking about production, and Romney in turn saying the strategy hasn't worked because of the price you pay at the pump.
While there was occasional name-checking of wind or solar, this debate's energy talk was almost limited to fossil fuels, though. The energy we feed into the grid by burning fossil fuels wasn't talked about much by either candidate, and nobody said a word about energy infrastructure, grid cybersecurity or the smart grid.
It wasn't too much to hope for either. I have heard this president say the words "smart grid" before, even though many voters might not yet know what it means. Romney, I'm sure, is aware of these technologies too, having helped manage the finances of high-tech companies in his private asset management days.
I wish "energy" in the context of a political debate could occasionally mean something more than "gas prices" though.
It was a town hall style debate, and time was limited however. According to at least one report, Crowley had a question on climate change in her pocket that she never got around to asking. That could have potentially yielded some thought-provoking statements. Maybe if there had been a bit less crosstalk on the floor, she could have gotten to it.
There is still one more debate, but it will primarily concern foreign policy. This debate, then, was probably the last time energy policy could conceivably have been brought up in any great detail — at least with both the president and the governor in the same room.
If you want to know where these candidates stand on energy issues, it looks like you're going to have to do a little digging.
For more on Romney and Obama's respective energy plans, see Jennifer Van Burkleo's story from the September-October issue of Electric Light & Power magazine.
And please, don't forget to vote — Nov. 6, or earlier if your state allows it.
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