Friday, July 30, 2010

How practical are electric cars? The sequel.

A few days after I wrote part one of these blogs, Chevy came out with an estimated cost of the Volt, and my frugal Midwestern farm girl inner voice cried “Holy capped carburetors! Seriously?”

The Volt will come in at around $40,000, making it about $33,000 after the government credit. (The Nissan Leaf starts at $33,000 before the tax credit.)

A lot of people I talked to about this---for I was a bit surprised that a car the size of my right tennis shoe would cost $40,000---made valid points about it being expensive to research and develop and such. And, again, I realize that my growing-up-Heidi upbringing might have me leaning a bit cheap on most purchases. (I recently refused to buy a belt because I thought a utilitarian strap to hold up my low-riders should not be more expensive than $30 unless it is inlaid in some sort of semi-precious stone.) But, still, who’s going to buy an electric car that costs like a sports car without the sex factor?

And, really, $40,000 is the base model, before bells and whistles, and it’s the MSRP. When’s the last time you bought a car at the MSRP?

I’ve got to say, I’m still on the fence about this electric car thing, overall. I want to be persuaded. I know I can be persuaded. Heck, General Mills cereal persuades me constantly with its shiny cereal advertising, but I’m still a bit stuck on this whole cost/benefit analysis thing. The cereal has it easy: it’s cheap and tasty and convenient. Triple bonus. The Volt has it hard. I admit that. I’m a tough sell.

It reminds me of the time I looked into solar panels for my house. $20,000 for something that would need about ten years to recoup the costs but would probably have to be replaced in five---and that was if it survived a good Oklahoma hail storm.

Man, it is expensive to save the world. Unlike Al Gore---whom I like, by the way---I just cannot afford it.

But, back to the Volt. I currently drive a Kia. It cost $20,000. That’s half the price of the Volt and about the same price I could have paid for those solar panels, although the panels couldn’t drive my bad self to work. The Kia gets pretty decent gas mileage, doesn’t cost a lot in repairs and is reliable. Plus, no limit on those miles beforehand.

So, would I pay twice the cost of my current vehicle to save the world? Not right now. In the future? Maybe---really---but there’s a catch: You have to prove to me it’s going to make a difference, this large and expensive Earth purchase.

I always have the same thought with electric cars, and it centers around hype. I can get used to the inconveniences (remembering to schedule charging on down time, looking for a charging station if out and about, thinking more about a car than I’m used to), and I can even get used to the price. I had similar sticker shock when CDs began to rule over cassettes when I was a music fiend in high school.

But, I’m having trouble with the logic, with the end result.

See, I live in the Midwest where use of fossil fuels is pretty prevalent in electricity production. So, while I’d be personally polluting less with an electric car, have I not simply shifted that pollution footprint to a power company? Am I making a real dramatic difference, or is it just a slight of hand? And, is it possible that shifting the pollution footprint to a power company could make that footprint an even larger one, in the long run?

Renewables are a growing force in the power arena, but they are still hovering at 3-4% of overall power production. That means 96-97% is non-renewable. OK, so 20% is nuclear. It doesn’t pollute---at least, not in a “puffy clouds in the sky” way. So, that kicks it down to 76-77%. We’ll be generous and say 75%.

So, if 75% of power production is still the carbon-emitting kind, am I making a difference buying an electric car? And, will I feel like a schmuck for spending twice as much to get no real results on the global warming front?

It’s something to ponder. What are your thoughts?

10 comments:

  1. I have sticker shock as well!
    after all this is a chevy. If I am going to spend a bundle on an electric car, why not step up and buy a Tesla?

    A couple of points though.

    Are you just moving the pollution to the utility? Sort of. But IC (Internal Combustion) are very inefficient converting fuel to motive power. The Utility can create electricity much more efficiently than that. The line loss for transmission, battery and motor inefficiencies come into play, but the total package is still more efficient than the IC.
    Therefore you footprint is smaller.

    Nuclear is NOT CLEAN. What kind of bill of goods have we been sold over this. Everything that comes near a nuke plant is contaminated. The costs are never added and tabulated for anyone to see that this is very expensive power. So, lets leave that one out of the mix.

    One interesting development comes with the 'Smart Grid" Your electric car sitting in the parking lot all day is an untapped power reserve to the utilities. There is potential to sell your stored power at peak rates and buy it at off peak rates. You could make money off your car! This has the potential to flatten out the peaks and valleys of the grid loads. That would remove the requirement for new power plants to service peak loads.

    Also, your electric car has fewer mechanical parts to wear and break. Your maintenance and operating costs should be much lower.

    So, there is a lot to weigh in here. It is not simple sticker shock issues.

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  2. I must take issue with MacGiver's statement that nuclear is not clean, especially where he said "everything that comes near a nuke plant is contaminated".

    During operation of a nuclear plant, those systems and equipment that come into contact with the primary coolant water do become slightly contaminated. This contamination is comprised largely of neutron-activated oxides of the materials in the reactor vessel, the piping and other components. The primary coolant is continually processed through filtration and ion exchange processes to maintain this contamination at a low level. The reactor coolant is contained and not released to the environment.

    Operation of a nuclear plant results in the production of a modest amount of low level radioactive waste. This is comprised largely of the filters and ion exchange resins from the coolant purification processes and of worn parts, tools and protective clothing used by plant personnel. These materials are solidified and compacted in a few dozen 55 gal drums/year that must be shipped to a licensed low level waste repository.

    Nuclear plants also produce a small amount of high level waste in the form of used fuel assemblies. These are typically stored in an on-site water pool until they have cooled and decayed sufficiently to allow for dry cannister storage. They are then transferred to specialized cannisters that are stored within the plant security boundary. This is needed because of the federal government's failure to comply with it's own law regarding creation of a permanent repository by 1998.

    A nuclear plant releases very little, if any, radioactive material to the environment. Contrast this with coal plants, which actually emit far more radioactive material to the environment than do nuclear plants. This comes from trace amounts of things like uraniun, radium and thorium that are present in the coal and that are oxidized during the combustion process. They appear in the fly and bottom ash as heavy metal oxides. There is currently no requirement to monitor these releases. If given the choice of living next to a nuclear plant or a fly ash pile, I'll take the nuclear plant.

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  3. My first personal computer was an ITT Xtra with two floppy drives and an 8086 Intel processor - in 1985 it cost $2,700. It had a monochrome monitor. I had a game - flight simulator - that took 3 - 5 seconds to reposition the screen.

    My first cell phone was a Motorola that resembled a brick. The battery would last about 2 - 3 hours - if you were lucky. I got this phone in 1991. I don't recall the exact price, but it cost somewhere around $400.

    Hmmmm. I checked this blog and posted my reply from my iPhone.

    The cost and effeciency of an electric call will likely move in opposite directions of one another over time. Early adoption is going to be expensive - think plasma TV's - but I believe we will see more and more electric and solar powered transportation modes in the future.

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  4. Dr. Tim is right on. MacGiver needs look up what the word contamination means and do some fact checking (or stop watching Homer Simpson carry green glowies home in his lunch box). I worked in nuclear for ten years and will choose sleeping in a nuke over driving by a coal plant any day.

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  5. Dr. Tim is the wiseman here. MacGiver needs to understand contamination and do some fact checking (and Homer Simpson is fiction). After working in nuclear for ten years I would choose to sleep there over driving by a coal plant any day.

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  6. Oh it's probably too expensive and will come down, apparently the prius was sold at a loss at first until they figured out how to make the manufacturing cheaper.

    but about your comment about "slight of hand" or power consumption, I used to wonder the same thing, but 2 factors changed my mind.

    1 - the carbon emitted from a coal power plant to power and electric car will produce 1/4 of the carbon that it's equivalent in gas does
    2 - in the future smart charging (v2g for instance) may actually mean that electric cars will stabilize our system and make using renewables much more efficient (solar puts out a lot of electricity, really fast - perfect for charging a car super fast, wind goes more at night, perfect for charging a car at home) and might even make it so less power plant need to be built (as counter intuitive as that sounds)

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  7. I appreciate all the fabulous dialogue on this one. I also got a note via e-mail recently about this. One reader wrote: "When I investigated the Leaf last Spring, the Nissan executive in charge of the product said that they were going to price the car with the total cost of the (not used) gasoline added into the consumer price. So for a real difference in automotive efficiency, look at http://www.ecomotors.com/
    I am a midwestern (Cincinnati) engineer and I think the whole electric car marketing strategy is a consumer scam... I am still driving my 1990 Camry at 184K miles - and it's still doing fine... and getting 35 mpg.... Return on investment is paramount."

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  8. Something else for the other 99% of the people who have to worry about what an electric car costs to own....Battery Life

    The batteries will wear out over time... just like the one in your laptop (same technology).

    So... about the same time you've finished paying off the 5 year note on the $40k compact car, it needs a new $10k to $15k battery. So what will your resale value on this thing be after 5 years, anything much above zero?

    Note, I estimated the battery replacement cost based on an article about the GM Volt that stated that GM's cost for the battery pack was $10k.

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  9. The practical way to view the purchase price of a car is to add (i) the purchase price, plus (ii) the net present value of the cost of all of the gas/electricity over the life of a car and other operating expenses. Dow Kokam (for example) will soon be making batteries that have cycle life well over 10 years, even at 80% depth of discharge at -20deg F, so I really don't think battery life will be an issue. Now let's make some reasonable assumptions about fuel cost: $2.60/gal gas and $.08/kWh, a 6% increase annually in the price of both, 12,000 miles driven annually, 25 mpg (above average), 3 miles per kWh (=120 miles per charge on a 40kWh battery pack--again a Dow Kokam product coming soon to an EV near you), a 4% discount rate, and a 10 year ownership period. On these assumptions, the gasoline powered vehicle costs you a net present value of $13,094 and the EV costs you $3,241 for fuel. That's $9,852 more for the gas car. Just add $9,852 to the $20,000 purchase price of your gas powered car. There you have it, on an apples to apples basis you have a $30k gas car and a $33k EV (after subsidy). Factor in a sizable difference in maintenance cost over 10 years because the EV has about 100 moving parts and the gas powered car has 8,000 moving parts, and I think the economics clearly favor the EV, based purely on a cost to buy and operate-- which is the basis upon which consumers should be comparing cars. Factor in just the RISK that oil spikes back up to $150 bbl (which, if the peak oil adherents are correct should happen within the next 3-10 years--a whole other debate), and the economics even more strongly favor the EV. And all this total ignores the cost related to emissions which of course burden us all.

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  10. MacGiver, your belief in the relative efficiencies of ICE's vs utility-generated power is somewhat shaky. A coal-fired power plant is about 33% efficient (out of the "fence"). A latest-generation combined-cycle power plant is about 50% efficient, also out of the fence. However, these figures do not take into account T&D losses, battery conversion losses (in the vehicle), etc. One might jump on the CC bandwagon, but remember that natural gas has seen wide price fluctuations historically, AND it has lots of other users, too (home heating, petrochemical manufacturing, etc.). A gasoline ICE is about 25% efficient, but a diesel ICE is about 40% efficient.

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