Blackouts on the way in Britain?

It's seldom that there's much drama in the energy world, however, in the U.K., a report by that country's government electricity regulator touched off a swarm of responses, defensive statements and condemnations — in short, genuine electricity drama.

It started with a report from the Office of Gas and Electricity Market (Ofgem) that warned of power shortages in the coming few years. Since 2012, Ofgem reported in its June 2013 capacity assessment, the risk of blackouts in the U.K. has doubled. Energy margins could shrink to as low as 2 percent in 2015 and 2016, according to Ofgem.

Ofgem said power outages are by no means guaranteed, but the risk is growing and the government needs to act swiftly to address the problem. Ofgem is calling for more government investment in power generation, as it places the blame for the potential power shortfalls mostly on the power generation sector.

Some factors that could increase the risk of power interruptions include a particularly cold winter or a higher than expected level of industrial activity.

Also at issue is the size and speed of Britain's decarbonization efforts. To comply with E.U. carbon-cutting goals, the U.K. is shutting down coal-fired power plants.

Some numbers: Since last year, more than 2 GW in installed capacity has gone offline in the U.K., and further shut-offs and retirements are expected. The economic situation in Britain and the E.U. is making new investment in new generation sources difficult. No new power plants are expected to be built until 2016.

The same economic downturn that is making power plants difficult to build is also making power plants less necessary — because of the downturn and investments in energy efficiency, peak demand has fallen an estimated 5 GW.

With such few new power sources in the pipeline, Ofgem is working with transmission authority National Grid and the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) to come up with ways to depress demand. National Grid has a scenario that anticipates power demand to fall an additional 3 to 4 GW by the end of the decade in part due to demand-side management.

This puts the U.K. government in the awkward position of having to root against an economic recovery. Because if factories start humming again, the country's power grid and its generation capacity will be that much more strained.

In 2008, the U.K. set its own greenhouse gas emissions limits and agreed to cut emissions by 80 percent by 2050. The U.K. is also a signatory to the E.U.'s 20/20/20 plan, which calls for a 20 percent reduction in E.U. greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 levels.

This month, members of Parliament debated the creation of quantitative targets for cutting carbon in the energy sector, effectively speeding up the country's decarbonization process. The proposal (an amendment to a wider energy policy reform bill) was struck down following a close vote, pushing energy policy into the headlines of U.K. news outlets.

Given the country's shrinking energy margins, rapidly approaching decarbonization goals, aging power generation fleet and the looming threat of power outages hanging over it all, the U.K. has some serious thinking to do on energy policy.

The country cannot expect to shut down multiple gigawatts of coal power and just expect the lights to stay on without a plan to maintain reliability. It's one thing to sign on to carbon-cutting treaties, but actually making a low-carbon power grid work is a more difficult trick.

An energy reform bill has passed through Parliament's lower house and is now being debated in the House of Lords. One hopes the debate will not have to be carried out by candlelight.

Update on the power race: Europe leaves us in the dust

A little less than 400 years ago, the pilgrims hopped on the Mayflower and left England in the nautical rearview mirror for a number of reasons, not the least of which was a lack of progressive thought (especially in the areas of religious freedom). Now, it seems that England, and Europe as a whole, have lapped us in some areas of progressive thought, including energy.

Yesterday, European Union Energy Commissioner Günther Oettinger stunned a lot of the EU community by not getting more conservative or free-market in his planning (as the U.S. did in last week’s elections). Instead, despite media speculation that he would follow the flow of fellow German and home country Chancellor Angela Merkel, he set out a huge five-point, trillion-euro agenda to make energy in Europe (gas and power included) one big happy family by the much-chatted-about 2020 deadline.

So, while the U.S. will be gridlocked on energy policy with a Democratic Senate and a Republican House and little-to-no elbow room in sight, the EU plans to sweeten the financial incentives for energy efficiency; create an EU-wide market with upgraded, interconnected infrastructures; direct energy policy from the top down (rather than by country); expand technology in multiple areas (including the “smart city” concepts) and push for consumer options on price comparisons, supplier changes and billing.

Along with those smaller goals are the overarching plans of the 2020 strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20 percent, increase the share of renewable energy to 20 percent and make a 20 percent improvement in energy efficiency all by the year 2020.

By the year 2020 here in the U.S. we might have come to some final “yea” or “nay” decision on cap and trade. Maybe. But, I’m not going to hold my breath.

A lot of this indecision in the U.S., I realize, is due to a strong states-rights mentality that makes it hard to get all 50 states on board for anything, really. But, there are 27 member states of the European Union. And, while called “member states,” those are separate countries, with separate cultures, governments and, heck, even languages. Yet, they seem to work better for a common energy cause than we do under the umbrella of a single federal government.

Granted, the European goals may not be reached by 2020. That’s only a decade off. But, it’s vexing that they can get their people to at least agree on the concepts, the need and the planning---to at least “think” the energy forward. Getting even a pow-wow to plan for energy here in the U.S. seems improbable; getting a plan together for sold changes in the next decade appears nearly impossible at this point.

I hope that the U.S. can catch up to Europe in terms of power policy. It’s 1620 no more, and, at the official 400-year Mayflower landing mark (2020), Europe may have made advances we can’t possibly touch with energy efficiency, infrastructure, investment and, yes, the smart grid.