Thursday, November 18, 2010

An electric second coming: EVs put the pedal to the metal

Electric vehicles (EVs) fascinate me---not really because of the science behind them, but because of the politics. After decades of back-burner living, EVs died the first time in the mid 1990s. Now, they’re back from the grave, and, like the zombie hordes so prevalent in pop culture these days, EVs are poised for a massive takeover just all of a sudden, seemingly out of nowhere and for no single explanation that makes complete sense to me.

Honestly, I’m still not sure how we got here, nor, really, where we’re going.

It wasn’t so long ago that we declared the body---the first body. Director Chris Paine’s documentary “Who Killed the Electric Car?” just came out a scant four years ago. (Now, it appears, he’s working on a sequel tentatively titled “Revenge of the Electric Car.”)

What happened? No, really. What? This can’t have all been a leftwing, eco-conspiracy to change the way Americans (and some of the rest of the gas-guzzling world) think. Leftwing eco-conspiracies, like all conspiracies through history, simply don’t work. Granted, there may be more concern these days about carbon footprints and climate change among some subsets of Americans, but I just finished reading an article about a reversal in climate change beliefs. (The number of average joes who think climate change is hokum has spiked; the number of scientists who think climate change exists remains a steady “almost all.”)

Given the swing back on eco issues, that can’t be the sole force behind the EV explosion. So, where is this constant push for EVs coming from? Let’s try these options.

1.) That pesky foreign oil litany. We want off it. We don’t like it. It makes us economically and politically nervous. So, pulling massive amounts of American transportation from the great and scary foreign oil (FO) contingent is appealing across a wide range of politics. And, that’s been a great boon for EVs. It’s not just the eco warriors who love electric; it’s also the anti-FO crowd.

2.) Our attempt to shore up Detroit. Yep, for all the irony that exists in the dead car documentary, which focuses quite a bit on the director’s view that General Motors was pushing hard to kill it’s own EV1 (though, to be fair, a number of other car manufacturers had electric vehicles that also kicked the metal bucket), this may have a lot to do with reinventing the automotive wheel and how it can help the American job base.

3.) The assumption of cheap. Electric vehicles are advertised as cheaper (and, if you don’t have to use gasoline, you are certainly saving that cost). But, a true comparison of fuel costs per car vs. fuel costs through the power plant remains to be seen. However, cheap sells. Americans love cheap. (I know I do.) And, the idea of saving money will get many people to pay up front.

And the popularity of EVs continues unabated. Today, Southern California Edison (SCE) joined the Electric Drive Transportation Association (EDTA) in launching www.GoElectricDrive.com, a website to inform consumers about all the crazy details of buying and owning an electric car. (I found the video on how to charge your car especially informative, personally.)

At www.GoElectricDrive.com, you can calculate savings (see #3 above), find incentives (also #3 above) and learn about environmental benefits (see previously discussed eco-conspiracy). No real references to my #1 and #2 hypotheses though.

“Southern California’s expected to be one of the first and potentially one of the largest markets for plug-in electric vehicles in the country,” said Pedro Pizarro, executive vice president, power operations for SCE with this website launch. “SCE is committed to assisting customers as they select a plug-in electric vehicle. It’s important to understand the process of getting ready, from selecting a rate and charging options to understanding what individual households need to do to get plug-in ready.”

But, how many customers will be jumping on the EV bandwagon? Is this website prudent planning or just publicity?

In the end, to quote Sebastian Junger for the billionth time, all this EV hulabaloo may have been a simple meeting of the minds, a melding of right times and right beliefs---a perfect storm. But, whatever the political and economic meteorology that began pushing EVs on this massive overthrow path, it’s going to be even more interesting to watch what happens. And, we’ll probably be able to judge it by the title of Paine’s third EV docudrama---be it of a “return of” or a “death of” variety.

Now I’m going to go play a bit more on www.GoElectricDrive.com.

2 comments:

  1. Interesting information. However, JD Power seems to differ on the benefits of EV's. Battery technology is years from being affordable or even environmentally sound.
    As for consumers: what about long road trips? cold weather? batteries when the car wrecks? batteries at end of life? Safety? charging infrastructure?
    Until these questions have practical answers, an efficient ICE makes more sense than even a subsidized overpriced novelty EV.

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  2. Electrics and assisted-electrics will dominate the market for a number of reasons other than ECO and FO considerations. Among them: fuel flexibility with turbines eventually taking over from recips (check out the Jaguar concept car), safety features such as traction control integrated into the drive system via computer program, and best of all: performance. Electrics will gain acceptance from the public interest in high-performance cars, and the Tesla and Porsche Spyder are just the beginning. Add to that the high reliability of electric systems and a near-absence of scheduled maintence and why wouldn't you buy if the price neared parity with ICE?

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